US_UMCSI

  • Consumer Spending is 66% of US GDP – The remainder is Business an Government
  • As 80/85% correlation to the business cycle with a 12 month timelag
  • Avg=85.1, concides with approx 3% long term GDP growth
  • >80 – Very Bullish Consumers – Expect Higher Growth >3%
  • [70 ; 80] – Benign Consumers – Expect low Growth [-3% – 0%]
  • [55 ; 70] – Very Bearish Consumers – Expect Growth [0% – 2%]
  • Max=111,4 ; Min=50,0 ; Std=13,2